🇬🇷🇹🇷 Russian experts suggested that Ankara is preparing an Artsakh scenario for Cyprus 🇨🇾
The Hellenic-Turkish war in the Mediterranean over Cyprus is seen by the Russian defense institute.
Threatening predictions were made by authoritative Russian geopolitical and defense institutions especially for the Mediterranean, warning of an impending Turkish plan to provoke a war with our country. The reason for this is Cyprus, and the "main menu" is Cyprus's huge energy reserves.
For this reason, Russian experts talk about "war scenarios", stressing that Hellas and Turkey will be involved in a possible war in 2021 over the economy.
“2020 was a difficult year in all respects, but 2021 has every chance of becoming even more difficult. In addition to the real risk of escalation of the conflict in the Middle East between the United States, Iran and Israel, a fierce military conflict between Turkey and Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean is now possible, ”said the Russian Defense Institute.
In this scenario, the institute will employ both "invisible" American F-35 fighters and Russian S-400 air defense systems.
“Greece and Turkey are historical rivals. The United States tried to reconcile them within the NATO alliance, but to no avail. Today the situation has deteriorated much more dangerous due to the fact that both countries are in a state of serious economic crisis and need a serious impetus for recovery and development.
For this reason, the huge gas fields discovered in the Eastern Mediterranean off the coast of Cyprus have become a target for Ankara. Whoever controls their development and exports to EU countries will earn tens of billions of dollars.
Inspired by the great successes in Nagorno-Karabakh, the new "sultan" Erdogan may again try to resolve the issue by force. However, everything is much more complicated than he would like, ”the Moscow institute emphasizes.
The Russians believe that although Cyprus does not belong to the territory of Hellas and is a sovereign state inhabited by Greeks and Turks, Athens and Ankara support both sides militarily.
According to earlier reports, Ankara refers to the Treaty of Cyprus of June 4, 1878, which designated the island as part of the Ottoman Empire.
In 1969, Great Britain partially recognized Turkey's rights to the island, and in 1974, Ankara began a military occupation of the island, as a result of which the northern territories of Cyprus were occupied and the unrecognized so-called "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus" was created.
The point, however, is that the occupied territories of the Republic of Cyprus are recognized as an "independent state" only by Turkey. For the entire world community, these territories remain part of the Republic of Cyprus, occupied by Turkey.
The problem of coexistence of Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots in Cyprus is artificially exacerbated by Ankara, especially after the discovery of gas fields, since the island is a key point for the construction of the EastMed gas pipeline, which will transport gas from the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe.
“Ankara wants to get a bigger share in all this abundance, but the Greeks see the problem differently. There are reasons to believe that Turkey may try to apply the Karabakh experience to solve the problem by using force in Cyprus.
President Erdogan has a strong fleet at his disposal, and the Turkish army is considered the second largest in NATO after the United States.
“The Turks have in their arsenal offensive UAVs, which they are known to have used in Nagorno-Karabakh, they have Russian S-400 missiles, and now they have combat experience,” the Russian said.
Russian scenario of the Hellenic-Turkish war in Cyprus:
"In theory, the scenario could be as follows:
With regard to the Turkish part of Cyprus, some alleged calls from Greece will be announced out of the blue (possible provocations by the Turks who will act as Greek Cypriots) .
... This will push Ankara to impose a naval blockade on the island and send a military corps there, the Russians say.
These units also participated in the "Cyprus peacekeeping operation" (as the neo-Ottomans call Attila's bloody invasion of Cyprus and the occupation of 36% of the island's territory) and are ready to act wherever required).
But this would immediately force Athens to intervene to protect the Greek population of Cyprus, sending most of the Greek fleet to Megalonisos (Cyprus).
At the same time, some hostilities will begin on the land border with Turkey (Evros region).
According to the Russians, Ankara "appears to be quite strong on paper and can simultaneously carry out airborne assault operations on some of the Greek islands it disputes."
However, President Erdogan's main problem is that Greece is not Armenia, Athens will not be as soft as Yerevan.
In addition, the neo-Ottoman military actions of the Turkish "neosultan" will cause serious concern among all of Turkey's neighbors without exception.
Northern Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, Hellenic Islands, what will happen next? Central Asia, Africa, the Middle East?
In this case, undoubtedly, NATO allies will be forced to support Hellas. In fact, the United States has already begun to do so in a provocative manner.
For example, they imposed tough sanctions against the Turks for the purchase of S-400s, excluded them from the F-35 program, while they are preparing to transfer six fifth-generation F-35 fighters to the Greeks.
The US Pentagon has indicated that it is considering the Greek airbase at Heraklion, Crete, as a replacement for Incirlik.
Washington is also planning to transfer troops to the Dardanelles (probably referring to the island of Limnos in the North Aegean region), while the US Army Corps of Engineers is already modernizing the port of Alexandroupolis.
These are rather serious messages for Ankara, which would be simply absurd to ignore.
So will President Erdogan go to an open military conflict with Greece?
The "Neosultan" of today's Turkey will only bite off the part that it can swallow. Although it is clear that he will be inspired by the renewed foreign policy of the US Democratic Party and the new President Joe Biden.
"But we will see very soon what happens," the Russian institute concludes.
The danger in this scenario for Turkey, which will try to take possible military action to prevent Greece from interfering with Turkish illegal research efforts in the Eastern Mediterranean, will be enormous.
It is difficult to say what can happen in this case.
The Greek air force, which is much better trained than the Turkish air force, would have neutralized the Turks within 48 hours, while the Greek army, which had set up "no access forts" (in the Aegean islands), would have stoically dealt with all possible Turkish air attacks.
Greece is able to withstand any blows. In addition, in this scenario, the Greeks will fight "for altars and hearths", in contrast to the Turkish soldiers who are "tortured" by their officers to kill for the dreams of their "neosultan".
Turkey, after the first military defeats on the battlefield, will literally "collapse" because of its dictatorial regime. Now this is obvious, since it is shown by world history itself.
# Turkey # Greece # Russia