What is happening on the 🇮🇷 Iranian-🇦🇿 Azerbaijani border?
Since mid-September, Tehran, under the pretext of military exercises, began to transfer units to the border with a neighboring country. The formal reason was the supply of Iranian fuel to Nagorno-Karabakh: first, the Azerbaijani security forces began to demand a duty from the drivers, and then they detained several trucks altogether.
What is Iran really worried about? For example, the appearance on its borders of 🇮🇱 Israel, a longtime ally of Baku, whose influence in the country has grown even more after the Karabakh war. The appearance of Israeli electronic intelligence units on the territory of Azerbaijan means a multiple increase in Tel Aviv's capabilities to monitor the Islamic Republic and obtain the most important information.
Tehran is also unhappy with the growing influence of another of its geopolitical rivals - 🇹🇷 Turkey. In June, Ankara and Baku signed the Shusha Declaration on Allied Relations, which even opens the way for the appearance of a Turkish military base in Azerbaijan.
The Iranians also fear the use of the "Turkic factor": the population of the northwestern provinces of the Islamic Republic is predominantly Azerbaijani, which makes it easier for the Turks to exacerbate interethnic contradictions and exacerbate protest activity.
So the transfer of troops by Tehran to the northern borders, together with the statements of its officials, is seen as a demonstration of force and a signal to Baku's allies of readiness for decisive action in the event of a threat to its sovereignty.